Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 1.904293 2.009660 2.119932 2.244327 2.381219 2.527806 2.697356
2025-07-06 1.718061 1.859999 2.015069 2.198366 2.410840 2.651566 2.948132
2025-07-13 1.635541 1.803496 1.992847 2.224692 2.504569 2.836503 3.267887
2025-07-20 1.578685 1.766687 1.984119 2.258277 2.600933 3.024093 3.601705
2025-07-27 1.534147 1.738545 1.980185 2.292817 2.695952 3.212764 3.952183
2025-08-03 1.474182 1.686759 1.942370 2.279846 2.726064 3.315978 4.194388
2025-08-10 1.421321 1.639921 1.906699 2.265296 2.750274 3.409844 4.429842
2025-08-17 1.370921 1.593104 1.867732 2.242695 2.760031 3.481787 4.637706
2025-08-24 1.325167 1.549714 1.830434 2.219149 2.765328 3.545610 4.837622
2025-08-31 1.293920 1.523168 1.813186 2.220795 2.804813 3.660992 5.132491
2025-09-07 1.269535 1.504170 1.804505 2.232936 2.859051 3.801758 5.487296
2025-09-14 1.230974 1.465074 1.767194 2.202716 2.848258 3.839226 5.663953
2025-09-21 1.192444 1.425252 1.728041 2.168910 2.831314 3.867529 5.832211
2025-09-28 1.152661 1.382530 1.683421 2.125183 2.796544 3.863754 5.939170
2025-10-05 1.139662 1.374995 1.686384 2.150066 2.868692 4.043457 6.434062
2025-10-12 1.129854 1.371215 1.694076 2.181807 2.953154 4.251823 7.028364
2025-10-19 1.120888 1.368114 1.702341 2.214432 3.040809 4.474492 7.703592
2025-10-26 1.098206 1.345385 1.681856 2.202183 3.053155 4.559687 8.078112
2025-11-02 1.076289 1.323051 1.661109 2.188439 3.061817 4.638242 8.453181
2025-11-09 1.053185 1.298420 1.636222 2.167083 3.055957 4.687781 8.764724
2025-11-16 1.030924 1.274391 1.611454 2.144826 3.047084 4.730303 9.067555
2025-11-23 1.016662 1.261218 1.602055 2.146382 3.079889 4.859848 9.648270
2025-11-30 1.005883 1.252640 1.599046 2.157859 3.130844 5.032122 10.408945